The impact of rapid urbanization on the state of ecology and demographics

Economic, natural, and social conditions are influenced not only by population growth and its age structure, but also by the geographical distribution of the population between rural and urban areas. In 1900, only 14% of the Earth's population lived in urban zones. Today, 41% of the population are city dwellers: 73% in developed countries and 32% in developing ones. It is projected that by the year 2000, two-thirds of the Earth's population will reside in cities.

in 1985 and 2000 (according to UN data)

Tokyo-Yokohama 18.8 Mexico City 25.8

Mexico City 17.3 Sao Paulo 24.0

Sao Paulo 15.9 Tokyo-Yokohama 20.2

New York 15.6 Calcutta 16.5

Shanghai 12.0 Greater Bombay 16.0

Calcutta 11.0 New York 15.8

Greater Buenos Aires 10.9 Seoul 13.8

Rio de Janeiro 10.4 Tehran 13.6

London 10.4 Rio de Janeiro 13.3

The unprecedented growth of urbanization worldwide has led to the emergence of megacities — cities with a population of over 10 million people. In 1985, there were 10 megacities, most of which were in developing countries. In 2000, the number of megacities increased to 26, two-thirds of which are located in developing countries. Such cities suffer from severe air pollution, mass unemployment, and overcrowded slums. Garbage dumps and drains emit a foul odor. People living in slums lack sewage systems and discharge tons of waste daily into drainage ditches and vacant lots. In Mexico City, for example, more than 3 million cars, 7 thousand diesel buses, and 130,000 factories pollute the atmosphere. Air and water pollution in Mexico City causes 100,000 premature deaths per year.

In both developing and developed countries, urbanization creates additional problems. Cities concentrate solid waste, and experience high levels of noise, air, and water pollution; stress and a high rate of morbidity are inherent conditions of cities. Urban systems are unstable: they depend on external ecosystems that supply them with food, water, energy, mineral raw materials, and other resources, and absorb accumulated urban waste. Fig. 3.5 shows a diagram of resource consumption by a city with a population of one million. Data on discharges and emissions into the environment are also provided here.

Ways to solve demographic problems

Let us consider possible ways to solve the problem of population growth in this critical situation. I. Population control through economic development

The main efforts to reduce the population are focused on lowering the birth rate. In 1960, only India and Pakistan had official programs to reduce population growth. Today, such programs cover 93% of the world's population and 91% of the population in developing countries.

There are three main approaches to solving the problem of lowering the birth rate: economic development, birth control, and socio-economic changes. The most optimal option is a combination of two approaches — economic development and birth control, and in some cases, a combination of all three.

Based on data obtained from studying the population growth and decline rates of Western European countries that industrialized their economies in the 19th century, American and European demographers developed a model of population change. The model was called the demographic transition period. Its core idea is that as nations transition to becoming industrially developed, their death rate drops sharply first, followed by the birth rate. As a result, rapid population growth slows down, and then birth and death rates even out, and gradually the population size begins to decrease.

The transition period consists of four stages: 1. In the pre-industrial stage, under harsh living conditions, there is a high birth rate (to compensate for high infant mortality) and a high death rate. The population increases slowly, if at all.

The transitional stage begins shortly after the start of industrialization of the economy. In this phase, the death rate falls due to increased food production, improved healthcare, and sanitary-hygienic living conditions. However, the birth rate remains high, and the total population increases rapidly (usually by 2.5–3% per year).

In the industrial stage, the birth rate decreases and gradually approaches the value of the death rate. The main reason for this phenomenon is that couples, especially in cities, realize how expensive it is to raise children. Furthermore, when there are too many children, they lose their advantages in the labor market in a developing economy. It is also suggested that one of the reasons for the decline in the birth rate is the high level of pension provision: the function of guaranteeing the well-being of the elderly shifts from children to society as a whole, reducing people's desire to have many children. The number of residents continues to increase, but more slowly, and fluctuations in growth are possible, depending on economic conditions. Most developed countries are currently in this stage. 4. When the fourth stage arrives — post-industrial — the birth rate levels out or even becomes lower than the death rate, and thus zero population growth is achieved. Then the birth rate decreases even more, and the total population slowly declines. By 1989, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, Germany, Finland, Greece, Italy, Hungary, Luxembourg, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Great Britain had reached or approached zero growth.

Developing countries are still in a transitional stage and have high population growth rates. Without rapid and sustainable economic development, developing countries may get stuck at this stage. At the same time, rapid economic development in developing countries is hindered by many reasons; for example, many of them lack the funds or resources necessary for rapid economic development, as well as a sufficient number of qualified specialists who possess the technologies for producing high-quality products that could compete in the global market.

Demographic crisis and risks of developing countries

On the other hand, if population growth rates in developing countries continue to outpace economic development rates, the mortality rate may increase. This will slow down population growth and will mean that the country will slide back into a pre-industrial stage.

Applying this model to developing countries is, to put it mildly, problematic: in the 19th and 20th centuries, when Europe and North America were going through the four specified stages of development, the countries of these regions dominated the world in political, economic, scientific and technical, and many other spheres.

This cannot be said today about developing countries: in the conditions of a market (competitive) economy, the dominant side — the developed countries — will not give developing countries high technologies "for free," nor will they train personnel for them capable of implementing high technologies in developing countries. Rather the opposite: the best specialists — immigrants from developing countries — will "flow" into developed countries, which is observed everywhere. In the latter case, it is perhaps worth speaking about the "assimilation" of developed countries by the most capable immigrants from developing countries already in the 21st century, which would not be surprising given the aforementioned population growth rates of these countries. But this, as they say, is another story. Authors' note.

Another problem in developed countries is the slowing rate of population growth. In Hungary and West Germany, for example, there is a slow decline in the population. When the number of residents under the age of 15 is smaller than people in other age groups, a population decline can be expected over a period of about 60 years.

The only way to prevent this phenomenon is:

• to ensure that women of reproductive age have more children;
• to increase the number of immigrants.

The latter only confirms the thought expressed in the first note.

Population regulation through family planning

Family planning programs are based on the education and medical care of citizens; they help couples determine how many children they can have and when.

Residents of developed countries usually "automatically" receive basic knowledge about family planning and the use of contraceptives. The vast mass of young people in developing countries is uneducated, deprived of even basic reading and writing skills. These people do not have the most general idea about the process of reproduction, let alone birth control or the use of contraceptives.

Birth control services in developing countries were organized in the 1940s and 1950s by private doctors and women's social groups. Since then, the International Planned Parenthood Federation, the UN Fund for Population Activities, the World Bank, and other organizations and countries have been providing practical and financial assistance to countries in implementing birth control programs.

Birth control saves state funds by reducing expenditures on various social needs. Birth control also entails an improvement in the health of residents, as in developing countries about 1 million women die from diseases that are a consequence of complications during pregnancy. Such programs also help to control the spread of AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases.

Between 1978 and 1983, the implementation of a birth control program led to a reduction in the world's population by 10 million people, which saved 175 million dollars of state funds on providing residents with food, housing construction, clothing production, education, and healthcare. III. Population regulation through socio-economic changes

Along with the methods of population regulation considered above, the governments of some countries are introducing economic incentives - rewards and fines to encourage a reduction in the birth rate. In addition, women's rights are being expanded: access to education, employment, and raising the age of marriage, which also leads to a decline in the birth rate.

About 20 countries pay small monetary rewards to citizens who agree to use contraceptives or undergo sterilization. In India, every citizen who agrees to sterilization receives 15 dollars, which is equivalent to two weeks of wages for an agricultural worker.

In some countries, such as China, couples are fined if the number of children in a family exceeds a certain limit, usually one or two. Fines may be collected in the form of special taxes or other payments. Families whose number of children exceeds the established limit may be deprived of free medical care, have their food rations reduced, or be the first to be dismissed from their jobs. Along with penalties, a system of incentives has been developed in the form of paid leave for women who have undergone sterilization or abortion; a monthly allowance for families with one child; housing priority for families with one child, etc.

Together with the improvement of the economic situation, such incentives and penalties have allowed China to achieve a sharp decline in the total fertility rate from approximately 4.5 in the mid-70s to 2.6 in 1982 and 2.4 at the present time.

Another socio-economic path for regulating population size is the improvement of living conditions for women. Numerous studies have proven that education is the strongest factor compelling a woman to have fewer children. Educated women are more likely to earn a living outside the home rather than being limited only to child-rearing. They marry later, thereby shortening their reproductive years, and lose fewer children in infancy.

The governments of most countries regulate population size by allowing small-scale immigration from other countries. A number of states encourage emigration to other countries to reduce population pressure. And only a few states, mainly Canada, Australia, and the USA, allow significant immigration.