The impact of El Niño on India's dairy industry

Traditional approaches to planning milk availability no longer work due to unpredictable weather conditions. El Niño leads to rising temperatures and erratic rainfall, causing livestock farming to face feed shortages and increased water demand by livestock and crops. This reduces milk production volumes. For large producers, the flush period is delayed by a month and a half, the surplus period is shortened, and the lean period is lengthened.

Farmers who depend on dairy products as a source of regular cash flow face unpredictable incomes and damage to their budgets. At the same time, collection centers record volume shortages, and processors experience a raw material deficit. Against the backdrop of rising costs for feed, labor, and logistics, expenses for purchasing previous volumes of milk increase, which affects all participants in the chain.

The situation becomes particularly acute during holidays such as Navratris and Diwali, when the demand for milk, ghee, paneer, and sweets increases sharply. In some markets, the volume of available milk does not even reach 70 percent of the demand, which leads to a rapid price increase.

Adapting to changing conditions requires improved forecasting, accurate weather forecasts for farmers, assistance in finding alternative feed, and flexible raw material procurement channels. Investments in the cold chain and storage infrastructure are also necessary, while the ability to cope with variability becomes more important for India's dairy industry than increasing production volumes.