The impact of climate change and El Niño on rice yield in the new season

According to U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts, the upcoming season may be challenging for rice growers. In the U.S., where the main crops are concentrated in the Mississippi Delta, a yield decline of more than half is expected, which would mark the lowest figure in the last 40 years. Experts, including Professor Atul Jain of the University of Illinois, note that high temperatures significantly reduce the productivity of the crop, creating serious risks for farmers.

Climatologists at Columbia University classify the current El Niño as a "super El Niño"—the most powerful on record. This phenomenon leads to the weakening of trade winds and changes in Pacific Ocean water temperatures, which causes global weather anomalies, such as intense droughts in some regions and excessive precipitation in others. According to Jeremy Zwinger, president of The Rice Trader, drought poses a critical threat to agricultural commodities.

Nevertheless, the industry possesses adaptation tools. Over the last decades, investments in irrigation systems and the breeding of rice cultivars have increased the resilience of farms. For instance, India, which is actively applying new technologies, has become a leader in rice cultivation this year. An additional factor promoting photosynthesis and water-use efficiency is the increased concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which, as Atul Jain notes, supports global productivity levels.

However, there are also long-term threats. Studies show that with every degree Celsius increase in temperature, rice yield decreases by approximately 8%. Alisher Mirzabaev from the International Rice Research Institute emphasizes that climate change intensifies negative factors: from soil salinization to prolonged periods of drought. The excessive use of groundwater for irrigation needs is also a cause for concern, which, according to Sampriti Baruah, an expert at the World Resources Institute, creates a risk of resource depletion in the future.

At the present moment, global rice stocks remain sufficient to meet demand. Experts link the main food security risks to importing states: the Philippines, countries of sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Brazil. Specialists emphasize that the key task for science and policy remains the improvement of agro-system management methods to counter climate challenges.