The abnormal heat wave reduced milk production in England and Wales

According to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), between May and August, milk supplies fell four days short of expectations. The reasons were poor livestock grazing conditions, weak harvest yields, and heat stress in livestock animals in England and Wales caused by the heatwaves and drought of the record-breaking summer of 2026.

Many livestock farmers, including Debbie Wilkins, a dairy and beef farmer from Gloucestershire, were forced to house their cows indoors and start feeding them winter feed. Farm expenditures increased against the backdrop of declining milk productivity. According to ECIU estimates, losses from unrealised milk exceeded £83 million.

Nevertheless, total UK milk production for 2026 could still reach near-record levels. This was made possible by reserves built up at the beginning of the year, which partially offset the summer losses. In addition, the overall growth in volumes was previously driven by the consolidation of dairy farms, which made it possible to increase efficiency through mechanization and scale while reducing herd size.

ECIU Senior Analyst Tom Cantillon noted that recovering from heatwaves will become more difficult in the future, as milk is a perishable product that cannot be stockpiled. Due to a second consecutive poor year for grass, farmers are using up their winter feed ahead of schedule, and feed prices are expected to rise further. According to Cantillon, farmers need support in implementing climate resilience measures such as providing shade, tree planting, and ensuring water supply.