Sri Lanka's lessons: what a sudden transition to organic farming leads to

The policy of the authorities of Sri Lanka regarding organic farming led to severe consequences for the economy and agriculture. In the first six months, domestic rice production dropped by 20%, food prices rose by 50% in some cases, and the tea harvest was devastated. The abrupt abandonment of traditional farming systems exacerbated the country's overall economic crisis. Despite the economy having recovered, according to World Bank data for 2026, the poverty rate remains twice as high as 2019 levels, malnutrition and stunting have increased, and labor market recovery is not yet complete.

Despite this example, calls continue to transition agriculture to agroecological practices, including organic and regenerative methods, with the complete rejection of fossil fuels and synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. As Dr. Jacqueline Rowarth (Adjunct Professor at Lincoln University, farmer-elected director of DairyNZ and Ravensdown) notes, such measures do not align with the goal of providing the population with safe, accessible, and affordable food. For New Zealand, where pastures rather than crop production predominate, the consequences would not be so instantly catastrophic; however, experiments involving the exclusion of superphosphate on sheep and beef land showed a steady decline in production to 70–80% of the level of conventional farms even a decade after the experiments concluded.

The article emphasizes that organic nitrogen sources are capable of leaching from the soil just like synthetic ones. Furthermore, proposals to sharply reduce the use of synthetic nitrogen often rely on data for arable land, which occupies only a small portion of New Zealand — 180,000 hectares out of 26.8 million hectares. According to a 2023 OECD report, nitrogen losses in New Zealand (excluding soil organic matter accumulation) were 57 kg/ha N (in 2024 — 60 kg/ha, in 2022 — 63.4), whereas in the UK this figure is 83, and in the Netherlands — 133.

Food production remains a system with inevitable nutrient losses; however, organic methods, when calculated per kilogram of product, have a greater impact across a number of parameters, including nitrogen losses, while the products themselves cost more due to lower yields per hectare. The expert concludes that the implementation of policy decisions without regard to agronomic realities carries serious risks of unintended consequences, as exemplified by the aftermath of ignoring the advice of agricultural scientists in Sri Lanka.