Current state of the beef cattle livestock in the USA and beef import prospects

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, as of January 1, 2025, the total cattle and calf inventory in the United States stood at 86.7 million head, a 1% decrease from the previous year's figures. The beef cow inventory reached 27.9 million head, the lowest level since 1965. The industry has been in a contraction phase for 12 years, and the current herd size is nearly 38% below the 1975 peak of 45.7 million head. The number of heifers retained for herd replacement has also declined by more than 45% compared to 1975.

Experts cite prolonged drought and poor pasture conditions as key reasons for the decline in livestock numbers, which forced producers to send animals to slaughter instead of maintaining them for breeding. Additional negative impacts include high inflation, which affects the cost of feed, fuel, fertilizer, and veterinary services, as well as climatic factors that reduced the calving rate: in 2023, this indicator fell by 2.5% year-on-year. During the same period, the cattle culling rate exceeded 12%, marking the third-highest level in recent decades.

The current situation has led to limited beef supply and a rise in prices for finished cattle in 2025. Industry analysts note that the herd rebuilding process requires significant time: heifers retained for breeding today will not begin to fully contribute to herd growth until 2028. Against the backdrop of supply shortages and high prices, a plan to import 300,000 tons of beef, including from Argentina, is being discussed in the domestic market to meet consumer demand. At the same time, such initiatives trigger discussions regarding competition risks for local livestock producers and the safety of the imported products.