Cornell University study: risks to broccoli supply due to drought in California

According to the results of a study published in the Agribusiness journal, specialists from Cornell University analyzed the resilience of broccoli supply chains in the USA. Scientists created a model based on freight transport data from the last 20 years and federal drought statistics. The model included 14 potential production regions, including Arizona, Mexico, Canada, 10 East Coast states, and California.

Calculations showed that a moderate drought in California could lead to a 9% reduction in broccoli supply, and a severe one to a 20% reduction. Researchers note that since 2000, water deficits in the region have already contributed to a decrease in yield and a reduction in the acreage dedicated to this crop.

Researcher Binyan Dai emphasized that increasing the volume of broccoli cultivation on the country's East Coast could make supply chains more resilient. According to expert estimates, in conditions of severe drought, expanding production in the eastern states would allow for a reduction in logistics costs by approximately 10 million dollars.

At the same time, Christopher Valadez, president and CEO of the Grower-Shipper Association of Central California, points to the adaptive capabilities of California farmers. According to him, growing regions in California have maintained stable product supplies even during past drought periods. Nevertheless, experts agree that geographic diversification of production is an effective risk management method, which allows for increased reliability in providing American consumers with fresh vegetable produce.