Canterbury farmers are preparing for summer with a strong El Niño

Earth Sciences New Zealand experts report the establishment of very strong El Niño conditions, which could become some of the most powerful on record. This weather pattern is typically accompanied by intensified westerly winds, increasing the likelihood of hot and dry weather in the eastern regions of New Zealand. The eastern territories, particularly Banks Peninsula, North Canterbury, and the Canterbury Plains, are at special risk of prolonged drought.

Environment Canterbury council member and farmer John Sunkel notes that farmers started the current season in relatively good conditions thanks to a favorable spring and adequate feed reserves. Nevertheless, he is already harvesting more supplementary feed than usual and considering options for drying off cows earlier or reducing livestock numbers if the situation worsens. The main threat, according to him, is the potential for the drought to extend into the following winter and spring, leading to the depletion of feed reserves, as well as a drop in water levels in rivers and groundwater.

Former North Canterbury farmer and Environment Canterbury advisor Claire McKay urges colleagues to secure additional feed in advance and consult with banks and advisors before severe conditions set in. As examples of difficult periods, experts recall the devastating drought of 1987 and the dry period of 2014–2016, which led to production losses, financial and psychological stress in rural families.

Environment Canterbury warns that a dry and windy summer threatens water shortages, increased fire hazard, lower river levels, and the appearance of toxic algae. At the same time, the impacts of El Niño are heterogeneous: according to recent forecasts, precipitation in coastal Canterbury from October to December is equally likely to be near or below normal.