The blockade of ports hinders the export of Ukrainian grain.

According to Ministry of Agriculture forecasts, the volume of Ukrainian grain exports in the 2026–27 fiscal year will amount to 38–40 million tons. This figure is 12% lower than previous estimates, despite the fact that the total grain harvest in the country this year is expected to reach 60 million tons. According to one economist's assessment, by the end of the year, the blockade could lead to a loss of 1–1.5% of the country's GDP.

Difficulties with product shipment trigger a chain of negative consequences. In the coming weeks, the current harvest will be completed, but farmers will face a shortage of warehouse facilities for grain storage. Furthermore, shipment delays lead to breaches of contracts with foreign buyers, which reduces farmers' income and slows down tax revenues to the budget.

To overcome the crisis, the Ukrainian government has approved an emergency aid package and is negotiating support with the European Commission. Alternative logistics routes are being considered: through the Romanian port of Constanța, as well as the territories of Hungary and Moldova, which has already confirmed its readiness to ensure the transit of 600,000 tons of grain by the end of the year. The expansion of routes through Poland is also being discussed, however, this path is fraught with risks, as in 2023, the transit of Ukrainian products led to protests by Polish farmers and a subsequent ban on grain imports into that country.

Reorientation toward road and rail transport significantly increases logistics costs compared to sea freight. Low water levels in the Danube River have become an additional obstacle. At the same time, disruptions in the Black and Azov Seas are also impacting Russia itself: according to forecasts, its grain export volumes in August could decrease by more than half compared to the figures of previous years.