Sowing campaigns of Australian farmers under weather and market conditions

Military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have increased instability in fuel, fertilizer, freight, and raw material markets. Due to high fuel prices and fertilizer shortages, it is more difficult for farmers to apply top dressing to the soil. Rising nitrogen prices and dry weather forecasts make investing in crops that may lack water economically risky.

According to ABARES data, in some regions farmers have switched from wheat to barley, as it tolerates drought better and requires lower planting and fertilizer costs. However, some farmers focus on plant biology and climate rather than price forecasts, remaining skeptical about tactical decisions based on ABARES data due to their lag.

The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts the arrival of the El Niño phenomenon, which will bring drought to much of southeastern Australia and the southwest of Western Australia. These areas are experiencing low rainfall and the threat of late-spring frosts, with the development of some crops running weeks ahead of normal.

The situation varies across regions. In Queensland and northern New South Wales, following recent rains, chickpea yields are expected to be around average or slightly below. According to ABARES forecasts, lentil production will reach a record 2.3 million tonnes, while the chickpea harvest may decrease by 52%. In Western Australia, farmer Brad Burns reported that after the rains stopped, his early plantings of canola, wheat, and lupins are producing above-average yields, whereas late plantings may show low yields without rainfall.

Despite global food problems in other countries, Australia remains a major exporter. The latest ABARES forecast estimates wheat production at 29.9 million tonnes (3% above the ten-year average), barley at 16.4 million tonnes (a 30% increase), and canola at 7.3 million tonnes (a 37% increase). The main risk for consumers remains prices due to rising production, processing, and logistics costs.

According to the 2026 Farmer Wellbeing Report, 91% of Australian farmers feel undervalued. Industry organizations point out that excessive red tape and complex regulations hinder the production of necessary goods. To protect against global shocks and adverse weather, investments in crop genetics research and low-emission fertilizers are required.