Wairarapa farmers have been warned of drought and feed shortages due to El Niño

The Greater Wellington Regional Council has prepared a report outlining two possible response scenarios to the El Niño climatic event, which will affect the Ruamahanga and Wairarapa coast catchments this summer. According to the most likely forecast, the region faces a two-month dry period with no or minimal precipitation. This will lead to urban water restrictions, while local farms face a shortage of pasture growth and the need to use supplemental feed.

The worst-case scenario involves a drought lasting up to six months. According to the council's estimates, this could trigger an agricultural collapse in Wairarapa, cause economic and social stress, increase the risk of wildfires, and require the full activation of regional emergency management. Current data indicate that this event could be one of the strongest on record, with the highest drought risk expected this coming summer.

Dave Hopkins, the council's General Manager of Strategy, Policy and Science, explained that the El Niño phenomenon is caused by unusual warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Previous similar events in 1972–1973, 1982–1983, and 1997–1998 have already led to severe droughts in the eastern parts of the country.

Greater Wellington councillor for Wairarapa John Hart expressed concern that some farms might face a shortage of on-farm water infrastructure. This particularly applies to coastal areas if farm dams damaged by this year's extreme weather have not yet been repaired. At the same time, Hart noted that farmers he has spoken with are not yet panicking, but are already making plans in case the drought scenario materializes.

The regional council report notes that thanks to a wet autumn and early winter, current soil moisture reserves and water resources in the region generally remain at normal levels. The authorities are continuing to work with landowners and water consumers, preparing regulatory measures, and planning activities in parks and catchments taking into account the increased fire hazard and drought.