The impact of El Niño on farmers and winemakers in Gisborne

Earth Sciences New Zealand Principal Scientist - Forecasting Chris Brandolino stated that the eastern part of the North Island, including Tairāwhiti-Gisborne, is likely to experience strong westerly winds and below-normal rainfall over the next three months. Temperatures will fluctuate, with warm periods followed by sudden cooling. Dry and windy weather increases the threat of bushfires, with only a few extreme coastal areas being the exception. According to Chris Brandolino, rainfall has been insufficient in the northern Raukumara area and towards the Bay of Plenty, and soils are drying out.

Federated Farmers Gisborne-Wairoa president Charlie Reynolds noted that inland areas are already dry, and some other areas are beginning to dry out. Nevertheless, farmers welcome the warming as it reduces the threat of the stable fly. To combat potential water shortages, farmers are planning livestock sales and booking tanker deliveries in advance. On his own farm in Ormond, Charlie Reynolds intends to sell sheep and most of the cattle, keeping only horses, and to secure 200,000 litres of water reserves. He also expects that the increase in livestock sales volumes will impact local lamb and beef prices.

Wrights Vineyard and Winery owner Geoff Wright shared that following a dry spring, rain last weekend replenished soil moisture reserves. The winery anticipates that a hot and dry summer will yield aromatic grapes and an excellent harvest, comparable to the cyclone-free 1998 season. As part of climate adaptation, the estate has replaced old Chardonnay and Syrah vines with 3,500 new nursery plants of warm-climate-suited cultivars, such as a Bordeaux red blend. In addition, the winery fills its reservoirs with water from the winter in advance and uses organic waste compost for soil moisture conservation. Geoff Wright hopes the warm weather will attract tourists, although during peak heat, the tasting room's operating hours may be shifted to the evening.

Earth Sciences New Zealand reminds that the tropical cyclone season from November to April carries standard risks: 7 to 11 cyclones are expected in the Southwestern Pacific, of which up to four could reach category 3 and above. Chris Brandolino recalled that devastating cyclones like Gabrielle and Bola were recorded during La Niña years.