The conflict surrounding Iran has triggered a rise in nitrogen fertilizer prices.

According to MIT Technology Review, the current conflict involving Iran is negatively affecting global supply chains, leading to a rise in natural gas prices. Since the production of nitrogen fertilizer, including ammonia and urea, critically depends on this energy resource, a significant increase in the cost of these products for the agricultural sector is being observed.

The current situation goes beyond agriculture and affects energy markets as a whole, including the cost of crude oil. Market participants are currently assessing how fluctuations in natural gas prices may affect the cost of oil extraction due to the historical correlation between these resources.

In prediction markets, experts estimate the probability of crude oil reaching a historical price high by September 30 at 1.8%. At the same time, the probability of such a scenario by December 31 is 11%, which indicates expectations of significant influencing factors emerging before the end of the current year. Market participants attribute the decrease in short-term forecasts to current stability, however, persistent geopolitical tension could change the dynamics.

Further development of the situation depends on potential disruptions in energy supplies. It is expected that the actions of key organizations, in particular OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), will have a significant impact on the market vector. To understand further market trends, farmers and analysts should monitor changes in the geopolitical situation and official statements from energy agencies.