The 2026 harvest in the UK could be the worst on record.

According to an analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), the harvest losses of grain and oilseed crops in 2026 could amount to 2.5 million tonnes compared to initial forecasts. Losses for British farmers are estimated at up to £390 million. If the preliminary estimates are confirmed, the final figure of 19.5 million tonnes will make the 2026 season the worst since 1984.

Data from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) indicate a decline in the yield of wheat, barley, and oats. The yield of wheat, which is halfway through harvesting, averages 6.8 tonnes per hectare, which is significantly lower than the average figures of previous years. Even under an optimistic scenario, ECIU experts predict that the current season will be among the five least productive in the history of detailed statistics.

The situation is complicated by weather conditions: the spring and summer of 2026 were characterized by abnormal heat and a lack of precipitation. July in England and Wales was the driest on record, and the southern part of England recorded its driest month since records began. At the same time, meteorological forecasts indicate the possibility of a sixth heatwave in the country as early as this coming weekend.

While northern regions of England and Scotland are facing thunderstorms and the threat of flooding, the central and southern territories of the UK continue to suffer from an acute shortage of moisture. According to weather forecasters, precipitation levels in these areas are highly likely to remain below normal in the second half of August, which makes prospects for an improvement in the situation for agriculture doubtful.