Price forecast for Kharif harvest: dynamics for major crops

According to Agmarknet data as of September 4, out of 14 crops for which MSP is announced, nine (including maize, jowar, tur, urad, and soybean) are trading at prices at or above the 2026–27 season levels. At the same time, the price of rice in the state of Uttar Pradesh on the specified date was 1,965 rupees per quintal.

Despite the general positive trend, market prices for a number of items are trailing behind the MSP. This is most notable in pearl millet (Bajra) and moong, with prices 31% and 13% below the minimum, respectively. Analysts note that the cost of moong may be further affected by the release of government stocks. At the same time, prices for maize, jowar, tur, and urad exceed the MSP by up to 11%.

Experts attribute the current volatility to concerns over declining yields due to the impact of El Niño. Official statistics show a reduction in sown areas: maize — by 3% (to 91 lakh hectares), rice — by 4% (to 421.82 lakh hectares), while the areas under soybean and groundnut have decreased by approximately 1 lakh hectares each compared to the previous year.

According to the former Additional Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture, the situation with rice remains stable due to government procurement of 40% of the harvest. Prices for groundnut in the state of Gujarat are expected to rise, and the cost of most crops is likely to stabilize at the level of FAQ standards. At the same time, a price adjustment for maize is possible after the start of mass supplies due to competition with other types of feed, such as soybean meal and DDGS. In turn, former Deputy Managing Director of the Nafed cooperative S. K. Singh pointed out that the current decline in soybean prices may be artificial and short-term, as the market is already accounting for the factor of a probable decrease in production.