Military actions in the Black Sea region led to an increase in wheat prices

Military strikes between Russia and Ukraine since mid-2026 have led to a sharp reduction in grain supplies from the two states, which jointly account for a quarter to a third of global wheat exports. Volumes of Ukrainian exports via the Black Sea in August 2026 fell to 0.5–0.6 million tonnes per month against the normal rate of about 7 million tonnes. Russian port shipments in August also decreased and are estimated within 1.5–3.4 million tonnes compared to the standard 5 million tonnes. Key terminals, including the Greater Odesa cluster in Ukraine and Novorossiysk in Russia, sustained damage or faced increased risks, which deters commercial vessels, while commercial shipping in the region has become virtually uninsurable at standard rates.

Projections for Ukrainian grain exports for the 2026/27 cycle have been lowered from 64 million to approximately 30 million tonnes. Ending stocks of corn and wheat in Ukraine by July 1, 2026, are projected at 9–9.5 million tonnes against 7 million a year earlier due to the impossibility of shipping out the grown harvest. In addition, restrictions affected supplies of Ukrainian corn, barley, and sunflower oil.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) warned of the risks of a 11.8% increase in global food prices during 2026 due to current supply disruptions. The most vulnerable regions are the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Southeast Asia, which depend on wheat imports and have limited domestic capacities. In particular, the world's largest wheat importer, Egypt, receives a significant portion of its supplies from the Black Sea region.