Meteorologists forecast November precipitation in key wheat growing regions

IMD Head M. Mohapatra stated at a virtual press conference that in November, rainfall over most parts of the country is expected to be below normal. Exceptions will be isolated areas in the central, northwestern, and northeastern regions, where normal or enhanced rains are forecast. Overall for the country, the November rainfall figure will be less than 77 percent of the long-term average value of 29.7 mm. The forecast covers the main wheat sowing period and follows the October precipitation deficit.

Specifically, normal and above-normal rainfall is expected in Madhya Pradesh, adjacent parts of Maharashtra and Gujarat, as well as in East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Western Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Punjab will receive below-normal rainfall, however, the wheat acreage here is almost entirely provided with irrigation, which mitigates the risks. At the same time, the lack of rains in Rajasthan and most of Gujarat may complicate the prospects for winter crops due to a deficit of guaranteed irrigation. The Southern Peninsula is also forecast to experience below-normal rainfall — less than 77 percent of the long-term average of 118.7 mm.

The current October was marked by a significant moisture deficit, although rains at the end of the month reduced the overall moisture shortage across the country to 31 percent by October 31, and October went down in history as the sixth driest since 2001. Former Agriculture Commissioner J. S. Sandhu earlier noted the critical importance of November rainfall for the normal sowing of winter crops. M. Mohapatra also pointed out that the strong El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean may persist until December, but its intensity will gradually decrease from January to March.

In addition, October recorded the highest average maximum temperature since 1901 at 32.43 degrees Celsius, and the average temperature reached 26.63 degrees Celsius, becoming the third highest since 1901. In November, meteorologists forecast elevated daytime temperatures across almost the entire country, with the exception of zones near the foothills of the Himalayas, and mostly elevated nighttime temperatures, except for the central and eastern areas. The government has set a food grain production target for the 2026–27 growing season at 177.72 million tonnes, including 121 million tonnes of wheat, and also aims to harvest other winter crops such as chickpea, lentils, mustard, and barley.