India reports the recovery of monsoon rains and a reduction in risks to the Kharif harvest.

The situation with monsoon rains in India shows a steady recovery. As of August 19, the accumulated precipitation deficit decreased to 12.6%, although in June this figure reached 35%. Macquarie specialists note that despite the positive dynamics, the situation has not yet fully normalized, and the distribution of precipitation across states requires constant monitoring.

Positive weather changes have been reflected in the pace of the sowing campaign. By August 14, the total areas under Kharif crop were only 2% behind last year's figures, which is significant progress compared to the 21% lag recorded at the end of June. Among individual crops, the sown area for rice decreased by 3.7%, and for corn by 4%. Plantings of legumes, oilseeds, sugarcane, and cotton are practically in line with last year's levels.

An additional factor of stability is the sufficient water reserves in reservoirs. In the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat, reservoir filling levels are at or above the 10-year average. In the states of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Punjab, the figures range from 80 to 100% of long-term averages. At the same time, analysts urge close monitoring of the situation in Bihar and some regions in the southern part of the country, where recovery is occurring unevenly.

The combination of these factors — improvement in monsoon rains, reduction in the sowing deficit, and the availability of irrigation reserves — has made it possible to reduce risks for the total production volume of the Kharif crop. It is also noted that the pressure on food inflation, caused by risks in supply chains, has eased compared to June forecasts. In general, the prospects for the development of the agricultural sector for the remainder of the season look more stable than they did two months ago.