Experts forecast a shortage of rice and tomatoes in Nigeria over the next three months.

According to forecasts by Alexander Isong, head of the Organisation for Technology Advancement of Cold Chain in West Africa (OTACCWA), the country will face a shortage of rice, tomatoes, and other staple foods in the coming quarter. Rice production is expected to decline by 6% to 8.3 million tons against the backdrop of a 7% reduction in sowing area. According to the USDA, there is an annual decrease in the production of this crop by 5%.

A difficult situation is also emerging with other crops: a decrease in sowing volumes in 2025 creates risks for the supply of corn, sorghum, and millet. Limited supply of onions and peppers in major production regions is also noted, which has already led to a rise in prices. The tomato shortage, according to the expert, may persist until the start of the late harvesting season in October. Furthermore, Nigeria remains dependent on wheat imports, the volume of which is expected to reach 7.2 million tons.

The key reasons for the current challenges are cited as the insecure environment in a number of regions, disruptions in logistics chains, and a lack of storage capacity for produce. Due to the lack of security, many farmers in the northern part of the country were forced to abandon their land, which directly impacts the reduction in production volumes. Rising logistics costs also make a significant contribution to the final cost of products: the cost of transporting grain from Kano to Lagos has risen to 70,000 naira from the previous 45,000 naira, and on some routes, tariffs have increased two to threefold.

To stabilize the situation, the expert proposes a set of measures, including improving security in agricultural belts, repairing rural roads, and developing rail freight transportation. Particular attention should be paid to reducing post-harvest losses, which currently account for 30% to 50% of perishable produce. Among the priority steps, investments in the creation of aggregation centers, the construction of cold storage facilities and processing capacities, as well as expanding access to seed, fertilizer, and credit ahead of the 2026/2027 season are also noted.