Conflict in the Black Sea region and drought are driving up global wheat prices.

The geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine is negatively affecting the volumes of grain transportation through the Black Sea. Mutual strikes on port infrastructure and attacks on vessels have led to a decline in shipments of more than 40% compared to last year's figures. As a result, the export of Russian wheat via the affected routes, which usually account for up to 70% of the country's total shipments, has faced serious restrictions. September forecasts for the export of Russian wheat to international markets have reached their lowest point since 2010.

The Ukrainian side also notes a significant decrease in export potential: industry associations have significantly downgraded forecasts for the 2026-27 season, expecting a supply deficit of millions of tons. An additional factor putting pressure on global grain stocks has been dry conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. The combination of these circumstances has led to world wheat prices rising by almost 25% since the beginning of 2026.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat futures have risen in price by 14–15% over the last month, and since the beginning of July, the increase has been about 30%. Although a short-term decrease in prices was observed in early September amid news of possible diplomatic negotiations, experts urge not to draw hasty conclusions. Even if a ceasefire is reached, restoring previous export volumes will take a significant amount of time: it is necessary to carry out the reconstruction of ports, demining of shipping lanes, and resolution of issues in the field of transport insurance.

The problem most acutely affects the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, which are critically dependent on Black Sea imports. Egypt, the world's largest grain importer, is already looking for alternative sources of supply. Market restrictions are expected to persist at least until the end of 2026.