A new computer model has shown the impact of climate change on livestock farmers

Specialists have developed a computer simulation based on real and forecasted data on precipitation, livestock animal populations, and community well-being in a South African region. The agent-based modeling method made it possible to analyze how the decisions of herders regarding the purchase and sale of livestock animals under changing climate conditions affect the regional economy as a whole.

During three experiments, scientists found that worsening droughts reduce the total livestock animal population and lower human well-being. At the same time, the consequences are distributed unevenly. Wealthier animal owners can afford to purchase additional feed and, with each drought, increase their share in the total livestock animal population, which exacerbates social inequality. Without additional measures, improved weather forecasts primarily benefit wealthy livestock farmers who possess the resources to manage the herd.

The modeling showed that accurate weather forecasts combined with support measures help prevent the growth of inequality. For example, the provision of feed mitigates the consequences of drought, yet can increase the pressure on vegetation and wildlife. Mobile slaughterhouses are considered an effective solution — such projects are implemented in South Africa by the Meat Naturally company in cooperation with Conservation International, which makes it possible to reduce herd sizes before a drought.